Are Obama Supporters Overconfident?
Everyone seems to be confident that Barack Obama is going to be our next president. Being the nervous type, I am one Obama supporter who is hopeful but thinks it is too early to celebrate.
Sure, the polls look good. Really, really good. The latest Newsweek poll finds Obama leading McCain 53 percent to 41 percent, while the most recent CBS News/The New York Times poll has Obama beating McCain 52 percent to 39 percent, and the Big Ten Battleground Poll gives Obama 52 percent of the vote and McCain 43 percent.
The mother of all polls, CNN’s Poll of Polls—made up of data from seven surveys, including Pew, Gallup and Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby polls—has Obama raking in 51 percent of the vote and McCain at 43 percent.
And even America’s youth believe Obama is going to win. The Weekly Reader just surveyed U.S. students from kindergarten age to high school seniors, and they gave Obama 54.7 percent of the vote, while McCain netted 42.9 percent.
All of this poll data makes many Obama supporters positively giddy. A few of my friends are already planning their election night parties in celebration of Obama’s win.
Meanwhile, key Republican pundits are even predicting that McCain is going to lose.
But let’s not forget that things can change on a dime in political races. It was just last year that no one thought McCain would even become the Republican nominee, and Obama was seen as a shoe-in to win New Hampshire’s Democratic primary where Senator Hillary Clinton ultimately trounced him.
McCain, for one, isn’t admitting defeat. In fact, he is fired up and is promising his supporters a win in November, and I don’t think that he is delusional.
I don’t want McCain to win, but I think anything could happen with less than a week until the election. So I’m not popping the champagne cork in celebration of an Obama victory just yet. In fact, I worry that people will be so confident of an Obama win that they’ll think they don’t need to vote. I’m urging everyone to get out and vote on November 4. I have been sending out this customizable video produced by MoveOn.org—it is genius—to show them what could happen if they don’t. Check it out, and send it to your friends, too!
How are you feeling about Obama’s chances? Do you think McCain could come from behind in the polls and pull out a win?
(Image courtesy of Getty)